Bridging the gap

Exploration of ‘what-if’ scenarios for key sectors

Now that we have presented how Sweden’s Circularity Metric and indicator set are derived and investigated the message they portray, it’s time to analyse the findings and suggest a remedy. First, we identify some of the most impactful sectors of the economy, which we procure based on either a Mass, Carbon or Value level; as well as their potential to reduce the material footprint. For the chosen sectors, we then formulate scenarios that explore and entertain the ‘what-if’, allowing us to 'dream big' and imagine a more circular Sweden. They serve as an exploration of a potential path forward but also sketch which type of sectors and interventions could be most impactful in terms of steering the Circularity Metric and material footprint.

Scoring sectors on the mass-carbon-value nexus

We have funnelled our energy for the ‘what-if’ scenarios into six key areas that represent key leverage points for the Swedish economy. These scenarios are:

Summarising the mass-carbon-value nexus

Firstly, Mass is consumption-based, shown in millions of tonnes, and represents the material footprint of each sector. It indicates where the most significant material consumption is taking place in the economy and thus where reducing consumption should be prioritised. Secondly, Carbon is consumption-based, shown in million tonnes of CO2 equivalents (CO2e), and gives us perspective on where the largest emissions mitigation potential may lie. Thirdly, Value is production-based, shown in billions of euros, and gives us information from an economic perspective. It indicates gross value added (GVA) per activity for each sector.

Before analysing each of these sectors individually, it is also helpful to consider their combined footprint to strengthen our understanding of their magnitude in relation to the rest of the Swedish economy. The mass of these seven sectors amounts to a total of 228.31 million tonnes, accounting for roughly 89% of total material consumption in Sweden. Their carbon footprint amounts to 79.59 million tonnes of CO2e, representing about 84% of total GHG emissions in Sweden. Their value amounts to €222.12 billion, or about 47% of total GVA. This illustrates that the Swedish economy has other important sectors in terms of GVA, for example sectors that by nature are relatively less material- and carbon-intensive than those discussed below. This is in line with expansion of the share of services in the Swedish economy over the last few decades.

Unsurprisingly, the largest material footprint is claimed by the construction sector, representing 82.17 million tonnes (32% of the total footprint of the Swedish economy). Our first Scenario reflects attempts to slash this sector's large footprint—and indeed, shows the biggest impact for both cutting material use and boosting the Metric. Manufacturing (Scenario three) and agrifood (Scenario two) rank second and third for material footprint (15% and 13% of the total footprint, respectively), with other sectors trailing behind. Big-emitter Mobility ranks first for carbon footprint (with 23% of the total carbon footprint of the Swedish economy) and is the second highest in value—just behind Healthcare, Education and Recreation. It helped form the basis of our fifth Scenario: while its impact on the material footprint and Metric are relatively small, this Scenario's transport-related interventions will positively impact GHG emissions.

'What If' Scenarios

In past national Circularity Gap Reports, our scenarios have been largely free from the constraints of law or political realities: deliberately non time-specific and exploratory, their real-life materialisation did not inform our analysis. Through this approach, we were able to freely imagine our society could look with truly transformational change: a close to fully circular economy. Now, we have made our approach more grounded in reality: while we have not analysed political or legal hurdles, the scenarios presented are more technically feasible than in past analyses. What is presented below represents an implementable roadmap—while still allowing us to 'dream big' and sketch which type of interventions and levers are most impactful in terms of steering the Circularity Metric, as well as impacting the material footprint.

The selection of the scenarios was based on quantitative and qualitative research, which allowed us to paint a picture of what we're able to model based on methodological limitations. Input from expert stakeholders helped guide the selection, and tailored the scenarios to the Swedish context. In calculating the total impact of the scenarios on the Swedish economy, we can only measure the improvement to the Circularity Metric and material footprint, taking a Mass perspective. However, under each scenario, we also report the co-benefits of the circular strategies beyond only a reduction in the material footprint. Our modelling capacity is continuously evolving and improving: this is reflected by the approach in this report and will continue to improve for future editions. For more information on our scenario modelling, you can refer to our methodology document.

We are aware that measuring the effects of the suggested interventions in terms of their effect on the Circularity Metric and material footprint is a crude simplification which must ignore other relevant aspects such as additional ecological parameters. However, we see the value of this analysis in contributing to the dynamic debate on where to place our bets for enhanced circularity and reduced consumption in Sweden and beyond.

Our scenarios are informed and developed by the ultimate aims of slowing, narrowing, cycling and regenerating flows which provide a jumping-off point for the strategies needed to spur systemic changes.