Introduction

We are living in the Anthropocene: a geological epoch where our human imprint on the planet has caused increasing devastation to the natural world. [2] According to our Circularity Gap Report 2020, [3] our planet is only 8.6% circular: much of what we consume is wasted. Meanwhile, our latest Report [4] found that on the road from COP25 in Paris to COP26 in Glasgow, we have collectively consumed more than half a trillion tonnes of materials. [5] Our linear ‘take-make-waste’ economy has made throw-away culture the norm, putting increasing pressure on natural resources and our climate.

While the nation has made great strides in the sphere of sustainability—often praised for its relatively low-carbon economy [6] and high rates of waste collection—it is highly material-intensive; in essence, Sweden is more linear than it looks. The country's material footprint is the third-highest among EU countries, coming in at 24.8 tonnes per year per capita. Its strong economy is tied to its openness and export-dependent trade profile. Our analysis provides an avenue for change: one that can maintain the Swedes’ high standard of living while reducing pressure on material resources. This big shift is the circular economy.

The Risks of the Linear Economy

Much of the globe functions within the linear economy: our dominant economic model characterised by 'take-make-waste' processes powered by fossil fuels. The global economy consumes over 100 billion tonnes of materials a year, with a Circularity Metric of 8.6%. It relies on heavy extraction and emissions-intensive processes to fulfil societal needs—be they Housing, Nutrition or Mobility. Sweden is no different: while the nation has been hailed for its environmental actions—regularly placing at the top of sustainability rankings, [7] [8] owing to its clean energy and high rates of waste collection—its economy remains linear in practice. Despite being relatively low-carbon, our analysis reveals that Sweden must look to manage materials in a new way. Consumption and extraction rates per capita are among the highest in the world; and while Swedish citizens meticulously sort their plastic from their rubbish and enjoy efficient waste collection services, what often happens afterwards reduces the country's circularity: incineration. With the goal of a circular economy being to eliminate waste and pollution, keep materials in use at their highest value and regenerate natural systems, [9] Sweden is missing out on key opportunities to cut resource extraction and consumption.

The Road to Circularity

With a Circularity Metric of 3.4%, Sweden is far from circular. Of the 266.7 millions of tonnes of materials the nation consumes, 96.6% are not cycled back into the economy: they are either locked into stock (like buildings or infrastructure), dissipated into the environment or wasted. But low cycling only represents one part of the picture: the nation is also characterised by extremely high consumption rates: 24.8 tonnes per capita. While this is typical of a high-income trade nation, its consumption rates are almost double the global average. In satisfying the needs of its population—and exporting elsewhere in the world—Sweden extracts 26.4 tonnes of resources per capita per year within its borders, making the relatively small nation the fourth largest extractor in the world. Ultimately, Sweden hosts just 0.13% of the world's population, but is responsible for 0.3% of its material footprint: the materials needed to satisfy a country's demand, including imports. Sweden’s geography (it's the third largest country by area in the EU, with low population density) coupled with the fact that it is relatively resource-rich and highly-developed helps explain this high per capita figure. The core tenets of a circular economy [10] will allow Sweden to pivot away from this linear pattern, bringing social progress within planetary boundaries.

Sweden's economy is largely linear and consumption is high; but across the globe, the impetus to change is surging. Glasgow's COP26 saw world superpowers scramble to update their national climate pledges in efforts to limit warming to 1.5-degrees; yet many fell short. Research estimates that all updated national climate pledges, if fully enacted, will lead to a warming of 2.4-degrees by the end of the century. [11] We know from the 2021 edition of the Circularity Gap Report [12] that 70% of emissions stem from material use and handling: decreasing consumption through circular strategies is inextricably tied to emissions reduction. But a focus on climate change—just one of nine planetary boundaries—isn't enough: already a relatively low-carbon economy, Sweden's priority should be to add circularity to its arsenal of environment-saving strategies to cut material extraction and consumption. This is essential for achieving and maintaining healthy ecosystems, clean air and water, and flourishing biodiversity. While concrete action plans—such as the government's 2020 National Strategy for a Circular Economy—give some direction, there is ample room for new and reformed plans, policy instruments and material reduction targets.

A Social and Economic Crossroads

The circular economy is a means to an end. And in reaching its end goal—an ecologically safe and socially just space for people and planet [13]—Sweden should continue to put social considerations, like decent employment opportunities and citizens' livelihoods, front and centre. The nation is well poised to do so: it's known as a generous welfare state and harbours ambitions to become the first fossil-free welfare nation in the world. [14] While reaching this safe space is necessary, the path there won't be straightforward. Conflicting interests exist across sectors and there is a deeply entrenched focus on GDP-based economic growth: strong commitments will be needed to steer action. A deeper understanding that current lifestyles, marked by high consumption, are unsustainable is crucial—necessitating a mindset shift away from the idea that all we need to do is recycle. Notions of progress must also be broadened beyond GDP growth—incorporating social and environmental indicators in our definition of wealth, prosperity and well-being. [15] While the absolute decoupling of resource use and economic growth is theoretically ideal, it is unattainable. And although Sweden has achieved relative decoupling—its GDP is growing at a higher rate than its material use—efficiency gains won't be enough if they're met by ever-rising extraction and consumption, domestically or abroad. Relieving environmental pressures will require the optimal transformation of extracted resources into goods that benefit society. A circular economy will require Sweden to reimagine and redesign its systems, ensuring the ecologically safe and socially just space it strives for. [16]

Sweden has a strong foundation to implement our strategies: nearly all of its electricity comes from low-carbon sources, [17] it boasts the economic environment needed to shift to circular business models, and it's open to innovation and change. Yet currently, action is limited, and political voices largely support single-issue solutions, like increasing recycling or transport electrification. [18] This is not enough to achieve the absolute decoupling of economic growth and resource consumption needed to fight climate change and relieve environmental pressures. The circular economy provides a holistic approach to these seemingly disparate issues: change that cuts across sectors and targets every aspect of materials' lifetimes, from extraction to processing to use to disposal (or reuse). This report presents six scenarios that will help Sweden cut its material footprint by nearly half, double its Metric and bring the country from theory to action: the true transformative, systemic change a circular economy requires.