Circular potential

Circular economy scenarios in the Circularity Gap Reports are ‘what if’. They involve simulating hypothetical changes from the baseline year (2023), such as shifts to more sustainable production and consumption practices or policy interventions, to explore their potential impact on material flows. These scenarios require the alteration of specific variables and assumptions to envision alternative futures. The approach allows us to imagine changes in Oman’s material footprints and flows, circularity metric and waste generation and treatment that can occur through the application of several circular strategies. 

The circular scenarios are grouped into five key resource-intensive areas and sectors that represent key leverage points for Oman’s economy, using 2023 as the baseline year for the analysis. These scenarios present circular interventions for (1) housing (2) nutrition (3) manufacturing (4) mobility and (5) lifestyles. These sectors encompass those that contribute most to Oman’s material and carbon footprint, while also reflecting essential products and services that support the functioning of society, and align with common approaches to grouping sectors within an economy.

The modelled scenarios produce a range of possible outcomes rather than a single fixed projection, in order to account for the uncertainties and assumptions inherent in scenario modelling. These ranges are defined across three time points—2023 (the baseline year), 2032, and 2050—and three ambition levels, or ‘parameters’: optimistic, middle, and pessimistic. The parameters are derived by combining climate change, socioeconomic, and waste management scenarios, each with distinct conditions for resource efficiency and circular economy strategies.

All scenarios factor in “underlying changes,” referring to socioeconomic, macroeconomic, and other real-world factors incorporated into both the baseline and circular strategy. These include drivers such as population and GDP growth, along with scenario-specific expected changes, which influence material production (and corresponding waste) as well as emissions. Increases in population and income, for example, lead to greater material use, higher emissions, and related climate impacts. These parameters are adjusted to the base year so they can be compared with global CGR datasets. While accounting for these effects reduces the apparent potential of circular interventions, it produces more realistic results.