Executive Summary

The Circularity Gap Report (CGR®) The Value Gap: Sweden explores the links between circularity and economic value, offering a new perspective on how linear practices lead to economic inefficiencies. As the first study of its kind, it makes three major contributions: a quantification of Sweden’s ‘Value Gap’, a methodology that can be further developed, and recommendations for advancing circularity through research, policy, and business action. Building on the global and national CGR legacy of mapping material flows, this report expands the frame to ask a critical question: What is the economic value of the materials we use, the products we consume, and the systems we build—and where is value lost or not created?

Sweden’s Value Gap stands at 19%, revealing that nearly one-fifth of potential economic value is lost due to linear practices. This translates to almost SEK 600 billion annually (equivalent to 57% of the national state budget) across six sectors where economic value that could be created is either never realised or prematurely lost. The findings highlight a systemic issue: current economic models leave substantial value untapped. Closing this gap presents a powerful opportunity to strengthen Sweden’s circularity, enhance economic resilience, and better meet societal needs.

The misalignment between material intensity and economic value creation remains a central barrier to circular progress. Value creation tends to occur downstream—closer to consumers and less material-intensive activities—while upstream stages such as extraction and manufacturing remain resource-heavy and generate lower economic value. Our findings reflect this pattern: the Mining & Extraction sector shows relatively small value losses, whereas sectors like Construction and Consumables experience much higher losses. This imbalance underscores the need to redesign systems that currently depend on high material throughput for relatively low value gains.

Preventing premature disposal and overconsumption represent Sweden’s greatest opportunities for value retention. Each year, goods worth an estimated SEK 420 billion unnecessarily reach end-of-life without being reused, refurbished, or repaired, resulting in major economic losses and wasted resources such as materials, energy, labour, and infrastructure. In addition, overconsumption—spending that exceeds actual needs or offers minimal benefit—amounts to SEK 200 billion annually. Tackling these losses through circular design, business model innovation, and behavioural change could significantly improve resource efficiency while meeting societal needs more sustainably.

Understanding where and how value is lost remains difficult due to limited data on material flows and circular activities. The complexity of the analysis and lack of consistent national statistics required carefully scoped assumptions, supported by expert validation. Improved data collection, better circular economy metrics, and enhanced methodological rigor are therefore essential for future analyses and policy design.

The findings point to four strategic actions to close Sweden’s Value Gap:

By reframing how value is defined, created, and retained, Sweden can transform its linear economy into one that is circular, competitive, and resilient—capturing lost value while advancing environmental and societal goals.