CGR The Value Gap: Sweden - Sizing the Value Gap

Measuring value creation and losses

The Value Gap captures the difference between the value Sweden’s current linear economy delivers and the greater value a circular system could generate. While the Circularity Gap measures material flows, the Value Gap provides an economic perspective, showing where value is created, lost, or never realised within Sweden’s economy. This chapter introduces the Value Hill, the framework that underpins our analysis, and explains how it helps trace value across the supply chain—from production to use and end-of-life. By applying this lens, we find that Sweden could capture up to 19% more economic value—equivalent to SEK 600 billion—through well-designed circular strategies. This highlights circularity not only as a pathway to environmental sustainability but also as a powerful driver of economic opportunity and societal well-being.

The Value Gap explained

This section introduces the Value Hill, the framework that underpins our analysis and is used to understand the Value Gap.

Figure one illustrates this concept, with the value creation phase on the left side of the hill. Within this phase, the Value Gap appears as value not created.

At the centre of the Value Hill lies the use phase (‘consumption’), representing the total value of products consumed by each sector. Here, the Value Gap can be seen in two ways: as value not created through underutilisation or inefficient use, and as the hidden costs of overconsumption.

On the right side of the Value Hill lies value lost: what happens after use, when much of the remaining value is discarded.