The Value Gap by sectors

Assessing value loss and recovery across six key sectors

This chapter presents the findings of a comprehensive assessment of six key sectors within the Swedish economy, examining how value is created along supply chains up to the point of consumption—and, crucially, where it is lost at end-of-life or never created at all. These insights uncover significant untapped potential and highlight sector-specific dynamics that shape Sweden’s economic flows.

Building on the framework introduced in the previous chapter, we now apply the concept of the Value Gap to real-world economic data. This analysis estimates where and how value is created, lost, or unrealised—first at the macroeconomic level, and then within each of the six sectors. By doing so, we identify both the scale of inefficiencies and the opportunities for value retention across the economy. The results offer a data-driven foundation for understanding how a shift away from linear practices could unlock substantial economic potential for Sweden.

Applying the value gap framework across sectors

Building on the previous chapter, our analysis focuses on six key sectors that together account for the majority of Sweden’s material use and economic activity. These sectors provide a representative picture of how value is created, lost, and potentially retained in a circular economy. By quantifying the flows of value across them, we can begin to measure the scale of inefficiencies and opportunities in Sweden’s current economic system.

As illustrated in Chapter two, this analysis reveals a Value Gap of 19%. Out of the SEK 3.25 trillion generated by the six sectors, close to SEK 600 billion is either lost or never created due to the dominance of linear practices. In addition, around SEK 200 billion (6%) of generated value stems from overconsumption—spending that exceeds actual need or delivers marginal utility. These figures should be understood as minimum estimates, as our assessment of unrealised value was based on desk research and restricted to a defined scope of activities. Additional losses beyond those quantified here are likely.

Figure three breaks down the SEK 3.25 trillion captured by Swedish society: approximately 20% originates from imports, 7% from domestic extraction, 32% from processing, and the remaining 39% from the distribution and sale of products and services. Despite this substantial value creation, significant losses occur at various points along the value chain. Upstream—during extraction, processing, and manufacturing—an estimated SEK 67 billion in value is never realised due to material inefficiencies, waste generation, and suboptimal production processes.

During the use phase, an additional SEK 108 billion is lost due to underutilisation and inefficient product use. At end-of-life, goods worth approximately SEK 420 billion exit the economy each year, with only SEK 42 billion recovered through waste management processes such as recycling and energy recovery. This makes premature end-of-life the single largest source of value loss. Extending product lifespans through strategies like reuse, refurbishment, and remanufacturing therefore offers far greater potential for preserving economic value than recycling or energy recovery, which are inherently limited to recovering raw material or calorific value. Circular approaches retain much more of the embedded value in products—including the energy, labour, design, and manufacturing effort already invested—maximising the economic and environmental benefits of keeping products in use.

Overconsumption represents another layer of systemic inefficiency. Roughly SEK 200 billion—around 6% of annual consumption in these sectors—delivers little or no additional well-being. Examples include underutilised floor space, food consumption beyond nutritional needs, and oversized vehicles. While perceived value is subjective, such patterns highlight a disconnect between consumption and actual utility. They impose environmental burdens while diverting resources away from more meaningful contributions to well-being. Addressing overconsumption through smarter design, targeted policy, and behavioural shifts could unlock substantial value—economically, socially, and environmentally—without compromising quality of life.

Together, these findings illustrate the scale of missed opportunities and market failures embedded in today’s linear economy. By quantifying the Value Gap, we create a foundation for identifying where targeted interventions could deliver the greatest impact. The following sections explore how these dynamics unfold within each of the six sectors, revealing specific patterns of value creation, loss, and potential recovery.